TEDx Talk: Existing Isn’t Everything

(and the strangeness of Probability)

Every day, rational consideration of probabilities saves us from terrible fates up to and including death. Try crossing a busy street without using the tool of probability… actually, don’t. This is a heavy reliance on something that, in fact, doesn’t exist. And probability is a non-existent tool that’s often abused, leading not only to harm, but often to unreasonable worry and pessimism. My TEDx talk gets to the heart of probability, its unparalleled importance to our survival, and why existing isn’t everything.

Life’s most important questions are, for the most part, nothing but questions of probability.
— Pierre-Simon Laplace
Probability does not exist.
— Bruno de Finetti
 
 
Why can we remember the past, but not predict the future? In the laws of physics, if you reverse the direction of time, they look exactly the same. So why is the future so unpredictable?